ECB Interest Rate Decision

1. ECB is to announce it’s interest rate decision today and is widely expected to remain on hold at 0.00%.
2. Currently, EUR OIS imply a probability for ECB to remain on hold at 98.39%.
3. Market focus is expected to shift to the accompanying statement and the following press conference.
4. We see the case for the statement to sound a bit more cautious and a bit less upbeat as recent financial data were quite soft.
5. Should there be a more dovish tone we could see the EUR weakening.

BoJ Interest Rate Decision

1. Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision during the Asian morning on Friday and is widely expected to remain on hold at -0.10%.
2. Currently JPY OIS imply a probability for BoJ to remain on hold at 91.62%. Softening inflation data, household spending and weak wage growth support such an idea.
3. Market focus is expected to shift to the accompanying statement, however no surprises are expected.
4. The key issue seems to be if the BoJ will continue to project the inflation rate hitting it’s target of +2.0% yoy in 2019 or not.
5. Should there be a rather dovish tone we could see the JPY weakening.

Today’s other economic highlights

• Germany: GfK Consumer Sentiment for May, Survey: 10.8 Prior:10.9, 06:00 (GMT), neutral to bearish for EUR
• Sweden: Interest Rate Decision, Survey:-0.50% Prior:-0.50%, 07:30 (GMT), SEK OIS imply probability of 93.73% to remain on hold
• US: Durable Goods Orders for March, Survey: +1.6% mom Prior: +3.0% mom, ≈12:30 (GMT), USD could weaken
• Durable Goods Orders (Ex-Transport) for March, Survey: +0.5% mom Prior:+1.0% mom, ≈12:30 (GMT), USD could weaken
• Preliminary Goods Trade Balance for March, Survey: -74.8B Prior:-75.88B, 12:30 (GMT), Neutral for USD
• Initial Jobless Claims, Survey: -230K Prior:232K, 12:30 (GMT), Neutral for USD
• Speakers: Czech National Bank Board Meeting followed sometimes by Press Conference

IronFX Daily Report – April 26th