BoE interest rate decision

• BoE is to announce its interest rate decision today at 11:00 (GMT) and is expected to remain on hold at +0.50%.
• GBP OIS imply a probability for the bank to remain on hold of 94%.
• Market focus could shift to the accompanying statement which could contain remarks about the political uncertainty surrounding Brexit and the low growth rate as well as the high inflation rate and the solid wages growth rate.
• The market may scrutinize the statement for any clues regarding the next rate hike.
• Should the accompanying statement have a more dovish outlook we could see the pound weakening.

Theresa May dodges another bullet

• UK PM Theresa May had a crucial victory yesterday in parliament regarding a major Brexit legislation.
• Pro EU Conservative rebels backed down after extensive discussions with government officials, and voted the legislation.
• The concessions made remain disputed as the rebels seem satisfied with the government’s proposal for a “meaningful vote”.
• The pound strengthened upon the news and now is facing the BoE interest rate challenge.

Today’s other economic highlights

1. Switzerland: SNB Interest Rate Decision, Survey: -0.75% Prior: -0.75%, 07:30 (GMT), 97.08% to remain on hold (CHF OIS)
2. Norway: Norges Bank Interest rate decision, Survey: +0.50% Prior: +0.50%, 08:00 (GMT), could strengthen NOK
3. US: Initial Jobless Claims, Survey: 220k Prior: 218k, 12:30 (GMT), could weaken USD
4. US: Philly Fed Business Index for June, Survey: 29.0 Prior: 34.4, 12:30 (GMT), could weaken USD
5. Eurozone: Preliminary Consumer Confidence for June, Survey: 0.00 Prior: 0.20, 14:00 (GMT), could weaken EUR
6. Speakers: German Buba president Jens Weidman (09:45, GMT), Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (13:00, GMT) and BoE governor Mark Carney (20:15, GMT) speaks. Also be advised of the OPEC meeting.

IronFX Daily Report ‘June 21st’