May defeated in the House of Lords

1. The House of Lords voted against a main part of PM May’s Brexit policy with a majority difference larger than 100 votes.
2. Despite the vote not being binding, the heavy defeat of the government could be interpreted as a strengthening of the soft Brexit side and possible further defeats may lay ahead.
3. On other news, the first day of negotiations ended with little progress as British negotiators received EU guidelines for the after Brexit EU-UK relationships.
4. Should there be further negative headlines about Brexit or the inner UK political stage we could see the pound weakening.

BOC decided to remain on hold at +1.25%

1. BoC decided to remain on hold at 1.25% with an accompanying statement which rather disappointed the hawks.
2. The accompanying statement stated that progress on inflation and wages could reinforce that higher rates will be needed over time.
3. On the other hand, it also stated that policy accommodation will still be needed to keep inflation on target and that BoC will be cautious with respect to future hikes.
4. We see the case for the CAD to be rather sensitive to headlines which may come out later today regarding NAFTA, but also to the inflation data on Friday. Overall a correction to yesterday’s USD/CAD surge may also happen.

Today’s other economic highlights

• Eurozone: Current Account February, Survey: +32.3B Prior: +37.6B, 08:00 (GMT), could weaken the EUR
• UK: Retail Sales for March, Survey:-0.5% mom Prior:+0.8% mom, 08:30 (GMT), could weaken GBP
• US: Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index for April, Survey:20.8 Prior:22.3, 12:30 (GMT), could weaken USD
• Initial Jobless Claims, Survey: 230K Prior: 233K, 12:30 (GMT), could strengthen USD
• Speakers: FOMC members Lael Brainard (12:00 GMT) and Randal Quarles (13:30 GMT), as well as BoE MPC member Jon Cunliffe speak.

IronFX Daily Report – April 19th