RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

1. RBNZ is to announce on Thursday during the early Asian morning, it’s interest rate decision and is expected to stay pat at 1.75%.
2. Currently, the market seems to have priced in the possibility of RBNZ remaining on hold by 99.14% (NZD OIS).
3. The decision will be the first with Adrian Orr as governor of RBNZ and the first with a dual mandate (unemployment and inflation).
4. Market focus is expected to shift to the accompanying statement as well as the following press conference.
5. We see the case for accompanying statement to retain a neutral to dovish tone, especially as the inflation rate dropped to +1.1% yoy which is at the lower bound of RBNZ’s target (2±1%).
6. Should there be a rather dovish statement we could see NZD weakening.

Trump to announce decision on Iran nuclear deal

1. President Trump tweeted on Monday that he will announce his decision on the Iran nuclear deal on Tuesday.
2. Should the US decide to impose sanctions on Iran’s central bank and oil exports we could see instability rising in the region.
3. Iran’s possible retaliation movements could include a reactivation of its uranium enrichment program as well as strengthening of Shiite forces in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, producing further instability in the region.
4. Any further instability in the region could increase oil prices as well as strengthen safe havens.

Today’s other economic highlights

• Germany: Industrial Output for March, Survey:+0.8% mom Prior:-1.6% mom, 06:00 (GMT), could strengthen the EUR
• Trade Balance for March, Survey: +20.0B Prior:+19.2B, 06:00 (GMT), could strengthen the EUR
• UK: Halifax House Prices for April, Survey: -0.2% mom Prior: +1.5% mom, 09:30 (GMT), could weaken the GBP
• Canada: House Starts for April, Survey: 220.0k Prior: 225.2k, ≈12:15 (GMT), could weaken the CAD
• US: JOLTS Job Opening, Survey: 6.020m Prior: 6.052m, ≈14:00 (GMT), could weaken USD
• API weekly crude oil stocks, Survey: N/A Prior: 3.427 m, 20:30 (GMT), any reading>3.427m could weaken oil prices
• Speakers: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks (07:15, GMT).

IronFX Daily Report ‘May 8th’