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European yields are mixed as bund futures are higher but, Gilts are little changed, with a slight uptick in U.K. headline inflation underpinning Gilt underperformance. The Bund contract meanwhile ticked higher on slightly weaker than expected ZEW investor confidence, although the September contract is off earlier highs, as confidence still bounced back from the post-Brexit slump in June and stock markets moved off earlier lows, with the DAX retested the 10,700 level again and again failed.

The BoE meanwhile is unlikely to be impressed by the inflation uptick, which will be impacted by the weaker currency and was already flagged by the BoE in its latest inflation report. Higher oil prices are underpinning risk appetite, but while European stocks are off lows, they remain mostly in the red, following on from a weak Asian session.

The flattening of the Gilt curve from the very long end meanwhile resumed, with the 0.1 basis points rise in the 10-year cash yield contrasting with a -1.0 basis point dip in the 30-year yield. At this end of the market supply is curtailed by pension funds and insurers, which have to hold the paper for regulatory purposes, although last week’s auction, which saw the BoE paying above market rates is likely to bring speculative sellers out.

U.K. CPI Was Stronger than Expected in July

Inflation perked up a little in the United Kingdom. The U.K. July CPI inflation rose to +0.6% year over year in the headline rate from 0.5% in June against expectations for an unchanged reading. CPI is now at the highest level since November 2014. Core CPI, in contrast, dipped to 1.3% year over year from 1.4%. The headline rate is set to shoot higher in the coming months as a consequence of sterling’s 12%-plus decline since the vote to leave the EU. The BoE has already flagged this, noting in its August Inflation Report that currency weakness will “hasten the return to the 2% target”.

The Eurozone trade surplus narrowed in June, with the seasonally adjusted reading falling to EUR 23.4 billion from EUR 24.6 in May as import growth outstripped export growth. The June number brought the accumulated surplus to EUR 73.3 billion in Q2, from EUR 65.1 billion in the first quarter of the year. This is nominal data, impacted by exchange rate and oil price developments, but the numbers still confirm that as in Germany, net exports helped to underpin overall GDP growth in the second quarter of the year.



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