European yields recovered earlier losses with Gilt contract in negative territory after the unexpected dip in the July claimant count reading.
The Bund future is little changed and Bund outperformance remains underpinned by a widening of Eurozone spreads as ECB easing expectations are being scaled back amid solid data releases and as a Fed September rate hike is being priced in again. Markets are looking ahead to the release of Fed minutes Wednesday and tomorrow’s ECB minutes from the July meeting are unlikely to send a particularly dovish signal.
In the cash market the 10-year Bund yield is down -0.2 basis points at -0.032% and the Gilt yield up 1.9 basis points at 0.60%. Meanwhile the Italian 10-year is up 1.5 basis points, and the Portuguese up 12.7 basis points, with the latter starting to eye the 3% mark again.
American Petroleum Institute Reports a Crude Draw
The most recent oil price rally is taking a breather following a mixed report from the American Petroleum Institute. While crude oil inventories declined by 1 million barrels, gasoline inventories surprisingly increased. The API reported that crude oil stocks in Cushing Oklahoma declined by slightly more than 600K barrels. On Wednesday the Energy Information Administration will report on its estimate of petroleum inventories. Expectations by analysts are for a small build in inventories. It also appears that any OPEC agreement will be sidelined as it is clear that Iranian participation will not occur.
The focus in Europe today was on U.K. labor market data, which, however, gave a mostly pre-Brexit snapshot of conditions. The post-Brexit July claimant count surpassed expectations in falling 8.6k, contrary to the median forecast for a 9k rise. The claimant count rate remained unchanged at the cycle low of 2.2%. The official June ILO unemployment rate also remained unchanged at cycle lows of 4.9%. June average household income rose 2.4% year over year in the three months to June in the bonus-included figure, up from 2.3% in May. Labor data is lagging economic indicator, and the report is contrary to more timely anecdotal signs of distress.