Get Ready for the Game Changer of the Month.

US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, May 4th, 2018 at 12:30 GMT.

Last month, the consensus expected the unemployment rate to drop to 4.0%, yet it remained stable at 4.1%.

Analysts have reiterated their guidance for this month at 4.0%.

Last month, the US Nonfarm Payrolls heavily missed expectations (193K), with the US economy creating only 103K new jobs in March.

This month, the consensus anticipates a higher reading of 198K (FXStreet).

Nonetheless, one of the most looked-at figures to gauge the current health of the job market is the Average Hourly Earnings data.

Last month, salaries grew at a rate of 0.3%; however analysts expect a slight decrease to 0.2% this month.

Will this month’s data confirm the slowdown of the jobs market? Or will investors be taken by surprise?

Market experts are divided in 2 groups

• Bullish factors for the USD
  1. Moderate wage gains suggest there is still room for labour market expansion.
  2. Inflation is still at acceptable levels.
• Bearish factors for the USD
  1. The Fed can’t gauge the effect of tariffs on the US economic outlook.
  2. The US budget is not on a sustainable path.

What do you think? Will the EURUSD rise or fall?

What is the NFP?

The non-farm payrolls is released every first Friday of the month by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and presents the number of new jobs created during the previous month, in all non-agricultural sectors.

Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which together with the Average Hourly Earnings data will help the Fed to determine its monetary policy in relation to national inflation.

Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish); although previous months reviews and the unemployment rate are as relevant as the headline figure.