Forex Market Analysis on NZDUSD – Kiwi Dollar Remains at Risk for Key Reasons

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

The New Zealand Dollar traded lower against the US Dollar recently, and was under a lot of bearish pressure.
There was a monster bullish trend line formed on the 4-hours chart of the NZDUSD pair, which was surpassed by sellers during the recent losses.
The NZDUSD pair also traded below the 100 simple moving average (H4 chart), which is a strong bearish sign.
The New Zealand Trade balance, released by Statistics New Zealand posted a trade deficit of -3,310M in June 2016.

NZDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The New Zealand dollar was under a lot of bearish pressure against the US Dollar, as NZDUSD broke down to trade below 0.7050. Can the pair recover moving ahead?

NZDUSD – Kiwi Dollar Remains at Risk for Key Reasons

As mentioned, the pair moved down, but the highlight was break below a monster bullish trend line formed on the 4-hours chart. Moreover, the pair also traded below the 100 simple moving average on the same chart.

The recent low was 0.6951 in NZDUSD. If the pair corrects higher from the current levels, then it may find sellers near the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7324 high to 0.6951 low.

NEW ZEALAND TRADE BALANCE

Today in New Zealand, the Trade balance, which is the difference between the value of country’s exports and imports, over a period of year was released by Statistics New Zealand.

The forecast was slated for a trade deficit of $-3.300B in June 2016, compared with the same month a year ago. The result was a bit lower, as the trade deficit was $-3,310M.

in New Zealand, the Trade balance, which is the difference between the value of country’s exports and imports

In terms of the monthly change, the trade surplus was $127M, compared with the forecast of $125M. The report added that “The June 2016 rise was across all our top kiwifruit export destinations, but particularly Japan (up $55 million) and China (up $39 million). The quantities of kiwifruit exported also rose (up 32 percent), with gold kiwifruit up 49 percent, and green kiwifruit up 21 percent.”

Overall, the report was stable, and may ignite a minor correction in the NZDUSD pair.

US SERVICES PMI

Today in the US, the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which captures business conditions in the services sector will be released by Markit Economics. The forecast is slated for a rise from 51.4 to 52.0 in July 2016 (preliminary reading).

If the outcome is positive, then the NZDUSD pair may decline further in the near term.