July 28, 2016

FXNet Forex Fundamental Analysis on 2016/7/28

Fed Rate Hike expected? Forex is looking pretty sparse on the data front with US Initial Jobless Claims (1330 BST) the headline act.

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This article is originally referred from FXNet Market News.

Asian stocks fell into negative territory on Thursday despite the Federal Reserve providing a positive assessment of the world’s largest economy. The market had hoped the Fed would give a clearer indication that it could raise rates within the year as they stated near-term risks to the U.S. economic outlook appear to be diminishing, prompting the call for a potential near-term hike in the eyes of many. But the Fed also noted that inflation expectations were on balance little changed in recent months, and gave no firm indication of whether it would raise rates at its next policy meeting in September. Tokyo is down 1.2%, The Hang Sang  -0.57% while Sydney managed to rally +0.36%. News that Chinese regulators are planning a tough clampdown on wealth management products to curb risks to the country’s banking system had weighed heavily on Chinese stocks with Shanghai down -0.6%.

In FX space it was a quiet session with USD/JPY again the most active. It dropped 50 points as Tokyo got underway but under 104.75 was only brief before a consolidation and then a pop back above 105. The Aussie and Kiwi had good moves in the early trading, up 30-odd points each, however, they soon drifted back and settled for the remainder of the session.  Gold flat lined while Oil rose on bargain hunting after sliding to a three-month lows on Wednesday after news U.S. crude and gasoline stocks had surged, reflecting weak demand during the peak summer driving season. WTI trades at $42.05 and Brent $43.62 a barrel.

So to the day ahead and again it’s looking pretty sparse on the data front with US Initial Jobless Claims (1330 BST) the headline act. For bears looking for warning signs for the US economy, jobless claims have been a persistent nuisance. With rare exception, this leading indicator has signaled growth for the labour market and, by extension, the economy for much of this year – even when other numbers looked worrisome. Based on what we know at the moment, however, the implied forecast in the claims data has generally been accurate. Today’s update is expected to provide more of the same as forecast sees claims rising 11,000 to seasonally adjusted 264,000 for the week through July 23, still close to the 43-year low of 248,000 that was touched back in April.

Original Source: FXNet Market News

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