July 22, 2016

FXNet Fundamental Analysis on 2016/7/22

This article is originally referred from FXNet Market News.

Asian stocks dipped on Friday after weak corporate results halted Wall Street’s record run overnight, while the yen held to large gains made after the Bank of Japan governor downplayed the need for “helicopter money” stimulus. Japan’s Nikkei slid 0.95%, dragged down by the yen’s rally on Thursday. The index is still up 1% in a week during which it touched an eight-week high thanks to an initially weaker yen and hopes of fiscal and monetary stimulus. Japan is likely to miss its deficit-cutting target in 2018 because the government has delayed a sales tax hike by more than two years, public broadcaster NHK said on Friday, citing an unidentified source. The dollar was little changed at 105.83 yen JPY= after coming off its peak of 107.49, its highest in six weeks, the previous day. Shanghai also slipped 0.65%, Hang Seng 0.47% and the ASX 0.54%.

In FX space early moves were dominated by the yen with USD/JPY popping to 106.25 only to drift back to 105.75 and is now little changed. Gold prices retreated in Asia as Kuroda’s comments led to a drop in Japanese fiscal stimulus bets at a time when Fed rate hike bets are on the rise. Consequently, the yellow metal, which is usually the biggest beneficiary of debasement, dropped to a low of $1324/Oz levels.

So to the day ahead and today we have Euro area July Purchasing Manager Index (0900 BST). The Euro area’s composite July PMI index is expected to fall to 52 from 52.6 in June – a notable, but not an unheard drop. The consensus forecast sees the German manufacturing sector being hit the hardest, but in June that particular number was the biggest positive surprise. The French (0800 BST) and German (0830 BST) data will be released earlier, so the market reaction could happen then.

UK July Purchasing Manager Index (0930 BST). The flash manufacturing index is expected to decrease to 47.8 from 52.1 in June, while the flash service index is seen to fall to 48.9 from 52.3. This means both sectors would have an index reading below 50 and suggesting contraction, and the indices would be around levels last seen in 2012 during the height of the euro crisis. The International Monetary Fund this week cut its growth forecast especially for the UK, but also for the world as a whole. Despite its decreased outlook, it did not see the UK entering a recession. In fact, the IMF believes the UK’s growth rate will exceed Germany’s and France’s growth.

Canada Retail Sales (1330 BST) Retail sales in Canada increased 0.9% month-on-month in April of 2016, following a downwardly revised 0.8% decline in March. Figures came in line with market expectations as sales at gasoline stations rose 0.6%, the first increase since June last year and receipts excluding gasoline stations advanced 0.4%. Today’s number is forecast to come in at 0.3%

Canada Core CPI (1330 BST) Inflation data is expected to come in lower than in the past month as the economy has slowed down due to lower commodity prices as well as overall uncertainty in global markets. The second quarter is looking less like an outlier and more like a shape of things to come, which will impact the Canadian dollar as it depreciates against majors if economic weakness continues.

Original Source: FXNet Market News

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