January is the best month on the calendar for USD; Average 1.00% gains the past 30 years.

Main points for Today

Dollar begins the year on a strong footing.

USD outperformed most of its counterparts on Monday.

This combined with rising US treasury yields fueled by expectations of higher inflation and thereby faster Fed hikes could keep the dollar supported.

Overnight: China’s Caixin PMI was revised up. AUD traded higher on the news.

However, we remain bearish on AUD. Further devaluation of the yuan may hurt Australian exports to China, and thereby resume selling pressure on AUD.

Today:

UK: Manufacturing PMI for Dec. Exp. to decline. GBP-negative.

Germany: Prel. CPI for Dec. Exp. to accelerate notably. Eurozone’s print may follow suit.

US: ISM manuf. index. Expected to rise somewhat.

As for the rest of the week:

  • Wed: Eurozone prel. CPI exp to accelerate. UK construction PMI. US ADP report ahead of Friday’s NFP. FOMC Dec. minutes; focus on fiscal stimulus discussions.
  • Thur: UK services PMI exp to decline.
  • Frid: US employment report; Exp. for another solid report. Canada’s employment report.
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