October 31, 2019

FBS, How the impeachment inquiry affect financial markets?

Why did markets shrug Trump Impeachment off?

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Why did markets shrug Trump Impeachment off?

Trump’s impeachment shakes the whole world, but Wall Street doesn’t care. Why?

Following a whistleblower complaint, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a formal impeachment inquiry into President Trump but we didn’t find the reaction we expected from Wall Street and the markets.

All we got was a giant shrug and a careless look then everyone moved on with their life.

This is a political moment, not an economic one, as many analysts say.

Wall Street believes that the process won’t ultimately lead to Trump’s removal from the White House, despite Pelosi’s effort to hold a vote in the House for impeachment.

Because it is unlikely at this point a that two-thirds of the GOP-controlled Senate would go along with the president’s trial.

What did trigger the impeachment inquiry?

Donald Trump allegedly pressured Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky to launch a corruption investigation against Joe Biden and his son Hunter, or he would withhold $400m in military aid for Ukraine.

Biden runs a business in Ukraine and the son of the Democratic candidate and Trump’s strongest rival in the 2020 election Joe Biden.

If Bidens are accused of corruption charges even outside the US, it would be a Strong boost to Trump’s prospect of winning a second term in the White House despite his declining popularity among the US voters.

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Why did markets brush Trump’s impeachment off?

A quick look at history will show us why the market overlooked this..

Back to President Bill Clinton impeachment process, which began on October 1998 and eventually ended with his acquitting by the Senate on February 1999 (just two months after the House impeached him), the stock market rose during this period along with the all—important consumer confidence barometer (Consumer spending drives 70 percent of the economy.)

The University of Michigan consumer confidence Index dipped to 97.4 that October but climbed to 108.1 by February, as we see that the impact was not as great as the event itself.

During Nixson’s process, the situation was even more frustrating.

Stocks briefly rose after the proceedings began in February 1974 then declined all the way through August 1974, when Nixon resigned.

How the impeachment affect the election?

How would this impact the 2020 presidential election, the US economy, and markets?

It is too early to know how this will affect the 2020 elections.

Public opinion was against impeachment, but Pelosi made this decision after hearing from Democrats representing swing districts, which seems to indicate some sense among Democrats that public opinion is shifting.

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How would this impact the 2020 economy and markets?

As for the US economy and markets, more uncertainty, which is already burning brightly, is ahead of them.

And let’s not forget the other global concerns as Brexit, the trade war between the US and China, Hong Kong protests, the conflicts in the Middle East and the looming recession.

On the other hand, the Fed has pledged to do whatever it takes to keep this expansion going.

As we have seen, the global economy is in trouble and the US economy is slowing down, so Trump Impeachment will have little impact unless there is a dramatic change in events.

Our guide in this gloomy road is the U.S. consumer if they continue spending, the economy would avoid recession and markets would survive.

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