July 18, 2016

IronFX Analysis - Turkey Coup Attempt Fails on 18/07/16

The Big Picture – Turkey coup attempt fails.

This article is originally referred from IronFX Research and Analytics.

The Turkish authorities thwarted a coup attempt that began on Friday night and devolved into turmoil and violence. The Turkish lira collapsed, while the safe havens JPY and gold surged on the news as the coup attempt spooked investors and urged demand for safety. As the markets opened on Monday though, the Turkish lira recovered some of Friday’s losses and the safe-haven assets reversed their gains as investors risk aversion eased. We believe that the political uncertainty and the geopolitical risks are likely to continue to weigh on the TRY, despite today’s relief bounce. The political risks are likely to have negative implications on the economy and could push once again USD/TRY above the psychological level of 3.00 in the not-to-distant future.

• Overnight, New Zealand’s CPI rate rose to +0.4% qoq in Q2 from +0.2% qoq previously, but missed expectations of +0.5% qoq. The NZD was already under selling pressure after the RBNZ announced last week that it will issue an unscheduled economic outlook update on Thursday, and continued to decline following the below estimates CPI. Although inflation accelerated on a quarterly basis, this was the result of higher energy prices. What’s more, the yoy rate stayed at +0.4% yoy, making us believe that the underlying trend of prices will only move gradually towards the 1%-3% target range, something that could force the RBNZ back into action. Alongside a potential rate cut, officials may choose to introduce macro-prudential measures aimed at curbing New Zealand’s housing prices. As such, NZD could remain under selling interest at least until Thursday when we will receive the Bank’s updated economic forecasts. • Today’s highlights: We have a relatively light calendar day with not much on the agenda. The only noteworthy economic release we have is the US NAHB housing index for July, which is expected to remain unchanged from the previous month.

• As for the rest of the week, on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes from its July policy meeting, where officials remained on hold. Interestingly, the Bank did not signal imminent easing and changed its statement’s language to indicate that new information will allow the Board to determine whether more action is appropriate. An account of a Board even more dovish than the statement suggested could raise the likelihood for near-term action by the Bank. From Germany, we get the ZEW survey for July. From the UK, the CPI for June is due out. Then on Wednesday, we get the nation’s employment report for May and on Thursday, retail sales for June are coming out. Given that these data were largely collected prior to the “Brexit” referendum, we expect them to attract less attention than usual, unless we have significant surprises. • On Wednesday, besides the UK jobs data for May, we have no other major events or indicators due to be released.

• On Thursday, the European Central Bank will meet to decide on the course of its monetary policy. With no forecast available, we expect the Bank to remain on hold despite the outcome of the “Brexit” referendum. Immediately after the vote results, the ECB said that it stands ready to add further liquidity into its market, but shortly after officials appeared more hesitant with regards to near-term easing, perhaps due to the calmer-than-expected market reaction. ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio said recently that the Bank has to “wait a little bit” to see how “Brexit” is going to affect the Eurozone before assessing whether further stimulus is needed. Furthermore, the fact that the Bank’s TLTRO II operations and the corporate bonds buying program were implemented in June enhances the case for officials to be patient for now.

• The UK’s retail sales for June are due out as we highlighted above.

• Finally on Friday, Markit has announced that for the first and only time, it will release preliminary versions of the UK’s manufacturing and services PMIs for July. This is done in order to give BoE policymakers and investors an early assessment of the referendum’s immediate economic impact.

• From euro area, we get July’s preliminary manufacturing and service-sector PMI data from several European countries and the Eurozone as a whole. Most of these indices are forecast to have declined.

• From Canada, we get the CPI for June.

Original Source: IronFX Research and Analytics

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