July 18, 2016

IronFX Intraday Comment on 18/07/2016

This article is originally referred from IronFX Research and Analysis.

• The dollar traded higher or unchanged against its G10 peers during the European morning Monday. It was higher against NOK, EUR, SEK and CAD in that order, while it was merely unchanged against AUD, JPY, GBP, CHF and NZD.

• The day is rather light on data with no significant releases on the agenda. Investors seem to have already digested the aftershock of the coup attempt in Turkey, with CHF, JPY and gold trading near their pre-event levels. Whereas the TRY made an attempt to recover all the losses vs USD but failed to do so and stayed around it’s opening levels. The British pound also made a decent attempt to rally, after BoE’s Weale said early action on interest rates is not needed and he is not sure if he will back rate cuts in August, but even this was short-lived with GBP/USD staying largely unchanged.

• Elsewhere, the market is waiting the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes from its July policy meeting, due out early on Tuesday. At that meeting officials kept rates unchanged and adopted a neutral stance. The Bank did not signal imminent easing and changed its statement’s language to indicate that new information will allow the Board to determine whether more action is appropriate. An account of a Board even more dovish than the statement suggested could raise the likelihood for near-term action by the Bank and may bring AUD under selling pressure.

• AUD/USD traded somewhat higher during the European morning Monday, but hit resistance slightly below 0.7610 (S1) and then it retreated. The rate is trading within a short-term upside channel that has been containing the price action since the 27th of June and thus, I would consider the short-term outlook to be somewhat positive. A break above 0.7610 (R1) could confirm the continuation of the trend and may open the way for another test near 0.7660 (R2). Nevertheless, our short-term oscillators give ample evidence that the positive path has started running out of fuel. The RSI appears ready to fall back below its 50 line, while the MACD, although positive, stands below its trigger line and looks to be headed towards zero. Furthermore, there is negative divergence between both the indicators and the price action. A dip below the 0.7570 (S1) and the lower bound of the aforementioned channel may carry larger bearish extensions and initially aim for the 0.7525 (S2) hurdle. As for the broader trend, I prefer to adopt a neutral stance. I would like to see a decisive close above 0.7720 (R3) before I draw any conclusions about a longer-term uptrend.

• Support: 0.7570 (S1), 0.7525 (S2), 0.7470 (S3)

• Resistance: 0.7610 (R1), 0.7660 (R2), 0.7720 (R3)

Original Source: IronFX Research and Analysis

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