THIS WEEK’S MAIN EVENTS AND EXPECTATIONS

*Tuesday 19th July*
04:30 Australia RBA minutes of July policy meeting An account of a Board more dovish than the meeting statement suggested, could bring AUD/USD under selling interest.
11:30 UK CPI Jun. +0.4% yoy +0.3% yoy As these are pre-referendum data, they are likely to attract less attention than usual, unless we have significant surprises.
12:00 Germany ZEW Expectations index Jul. 9.0 19.2 A decline could reflect decreased business optimism as a result of “Brexit”, which could bring EUR under selling interest.
*Wednesday 20th July *
11:30 UK Unemployment rate May 5.0% 5.0%
11:30 UK Average weekly earnings May +2.3% yoy +2.0% yoy
*Thursday 21st July *
11:30 UK Retail sales ex autos Jun. -0.6% mom +1.0% mom
14:45 Eurozone ECB policy meeting — -0.40%
deposit rate
15:30 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi holds a press conference after the rate decision :We expect the Bank to remain on hold at this meeting, given that some previous measures only began being implemented in June. Nonetheless, the officials could strike a dovish tone, which could weaken EUR.
*Friday 22nd July *
11:00 Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI Jul.
(P) 52.1 52.8 A decline in these indices could signal reduced business optimism, something that could hurt the Euro.
11:00 Eurozone Markit service-sector PMI Jul.
(P) 52.3 52.8
11:30 UK Manufacturing PMI Jul.
(P) — 52.1 These will be the first post-referendum data that will be released, so they are likely to attract a lot of attention. We expect both indices to have declined, which could bring GBP under renewed selling interest.
11:30 UK Services PMI Jul.
(P) — 52.3
15:30 Canada CPI Jun. — +1.5% yoy We expect the rate to have remained more or less unchanged, with risks tilted to the downside. A decline could hurt CAD.

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