Next week’s market movers

• In the US, the FOMC is widely expected to raise rates. Given that such a move is almost fully priced in, market action may come from the updated signals regarding the rate path.
• In the UK, the BoE is forecast to stand pat. The focus will be on the officials’ outlook for inflation.
• The Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and the Norges Bank, are all expected to remain on hold as well.
• In Eurozone, political risk events commence with elections in the Netherlands.
• We also get key economic data from China, Sweden, the UK, the US, and New Zealand.

On Monday, we have a relatively light calendar, with no major events or indicators due to be released.

On Tuesday, during the Asian morning, we get China’s retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment data, for the months of January and February, as these indicators were not released last month due to the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday. The forecast is for industrial production and asset investment to have accelerated somewhat, while retail sales are expected to have slowed. We see the risks surrounding retail sales as skewed to the upside,
perhaps for a smaller than expected slowdown, considering that the nation’s imports surged in January and then skyrocketed further in February. Such solid data could indicate that the Chinese economy continues to be stable. These are likely to be encouraging news for the PBoC. They may allow the Bank more room to tighten its policy further if needed in order to defend the yuan against an appreciating dollar due to a hawkish Fed.

FXGiants Full Weekly Market Outlook