This week’s FXGiants ECONOMIC EVENTS OUTLOOK:
*Monday 31st October*
10:00 GMT, Eurozone: CPI, for October: We see the risks surrounding the forecast as skewed to the upside, mainly due to the fact that Germany’s CPI accelerated more than projected. This could support the EUR, at least at the release.
13:30 GMT, US: Personal income & Personal spending, for September: Accelerating income is supported by a similar reaction in average hourly earnings for the month, while the strong rebounds in both the headline and core retail sales suggest that spending is possible to even exceed the forecast.
*Tuesday 1st November*
01:00 GMT, Japan: BoJ rate decision: We expect the Bank to keep its easing powder dry, having altered its policy framework at the latest meeting. The BoJ may want to take the side-lines and observe what action the FOMC will take first.
03:30 GMT, Australia: RBA rate decision: Australia’s CPI for Q3 surprised to the upside, diminishing significantly the probabilities for action at this meeting.
14:00 GMT, US: ISM manufacturing PMI, for October: Given that both the Empire State and Philly Fed indices declined in October, we see some downside risks to the forecast.
If so, it may prove USD-negative at the release.
*Wednesday 2nd November*
12:15 GMT, US: ADP employment change, for October: Although the ADP print is far from a reliable predictor of the NFP number, it could still raise speculation that the payrolls figure may also increase and perhaps meet its forecast of 170k.
18:00 GMT, US: FOMC rate decision: We expect the Committee to use this meeting simply as a stepping stone in order to prepare investors for a potential December action.
*Thursday 3rd November*
12:00 GMT, UK: Bank of England policy meeting: We believe that the BoE will refrain from acting, due to the relatively upbeat economic data, and recent remarks by Governor Carney. Focus will shift to the minutes and the quarterly Inflation Report.
15:00 GMT, US: ISM non-manufacturing PMI, for October: The non-manufacturing index is forecast to have declined, but to remain well above the 50 critical barrier.
We don’t expect something like that to hurt the dollar.
*Friday 4th November*
13:30 GMT, US: Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment rate & Average hourly earnings: This appears to be another month of solid employment gains overall, something that could reinforce the FOMC’s view in the September policy statement that labour market conditions will strengthen somewhat further and that a hike by the end of the year is likely.
13:30 GMT, Canada: Unemployment rate, for October: Following the consensus in Algiers among major oil producers, oil prices trended higher during the month, something that may have kept employment in the energy sector supported.
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