Market focus on RBA’s interest rate decision.
This article is originally referred from IronFX News.
Monday, July 2nd
On Monday, we’ll start a busy day early in the Asian morning with the release of Japan’s Tankan Indices for Q2 and then the final manufacturing PMI’s of Germany, France and the Eurozone for June are due out, as well as Eurozone’s unemployment rate and later on the US ISM manufacturing PMI for June.
Early in the Asian session we get Japan’s Tankan large manufacturers and non-manufacturers indices for Q2. The large manufacturers index is forecasted to drop as low as 22 compared to previous reading of 24, while the large non-manufacturers index is forecasted to remain unchanged at 23.
Tuesday, July 3rd
On Tuesday, the market’s focus could shift to RBA’s and Riksbank’s interest rate decision.
During the Asian session, we get RBA’s interest rate decision.
RBA is widely expected to remain on hold at +1.50%, as AUD OIS imply a probability for such a scenario at 99.57%.
Market focus could shift to the accompanying statement, should the interest rate not change.
With the current GDP growth rate (+3.1% yoy) being near the bank’s forecast of +3.25% yoy, the inflation rate (+1.9% yoy) well near the bank’s medium target of +2.00% yoy, the current account deficit narrowing and the unemployment rate (5.4%) being not at the best levels we’ve seen but still tolerable we see the case for the bank to have a neutral tone.
It would be interesting to see whether the bank will retain its phrasing regarding the inflation rate as well as any comments regarding household consumption and wages growth rate.
Wednesday, July 4th
On Wednesday, Australia’s retail sales growth rate for May and especially UK’s services PMI for June could be the center of discussion.
During the Asian session we get Australia’s retail sales growth rate for May.
The rate is forecasted to tick down to +0.3% mom compared to previous reading of +0.4% mom.
If the forecast is realized we could see the AUD weakening as the slight decrease may foreshadow a slight drop of consumer spending.
Given that household consumption is one of RBA’s concerns the indicator gains on importance, especially after Tuesday’s RBA interest rate decision meeting.
Thursday, July 5th
On Thursday, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for June as well as the FOMC meeting minutes could grab the market’s attention.
In the American session we get the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for June.
The figure is forecasted to drop to 58.3 compared to previous reading of 58.6.
Should the actual reading meet the forecast we could see the USD slipping as the drop of the indicator could imply a lessening activity of the particular indicator.
It should be noted though that the level as such could be considered as rather high if considered to the average of the past 12 months.
Friday, July 6th
On Friday, the US employment report with its Non-Farm Payroll figure for June could keep the market on its toes but the Canada’s employment data could also get some attention.
In the American session we get the US Employment report for June.
The Non-Farm payrolls figure is forecasted to drop to +200k compared to previous reading of 223k, the average earnings growth rate is forecasted to tick up to +2.8% yoy compared to previous reading of +2.7% yoy and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 3.8%.
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In the coming week a number of financial data releases could get the attention of the markets.
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Original Source: IronFX News