Weekly Market Outlook by FXGiants – January 9th-13th.
This article is originally referred from FXGiants News.
Trump’s first press conference as President-elect, Yellen’s speech, key data in focus.
Next week’s market movers
- In the US, investors are likely to keep their gaze locked on Trump’s first press conference after the election for any details regarding his upcoming policies.
- Fed Chair Yellen will also speak, but considering the nature of the event, we doubt that she will provide any fresh comments on monetary policy.
- We also get key economic data from China, Norway, Sweden and the US.
On Monday, we have no major events or indicators due to be released.
On Tuesday, during the Asian morning we get China’s CPI and PPI data for December.
The forecast is for the CPI rate to have held steady, while the PPI rate is forecast to have risen considerably.
This would be the 12th consecutive increase for the PPI rate.
The PPI forecast is supported by the Caixin manufacturing PMI for the month, which indicated that input price inflation rose at its sharpest pace since 2011.
This was mainly due to higher raw material costs, something that we believe may be linked to the yuan’s depreciation throughout December as it may have raised the cost of imports.
What’s more, the PMI survey showed that output charges also rose very sharply, which makes us believe that the CPI rate may tick up as well.
As for the European day, Norway’s CPI data for December are due out.
At its latest meeting, the Norges Bank said that there are prospects for inflation to be lower than projected, but they also noted that oil prices have risen and are now somewhat higher than expected.
In this respect, we expect Norway’s headline CPI rate to have been little changed.
But, even in the case of a slight decline, given that the headline inflation rate stands considerably above the Norges Bank’s target of 2.5%, we don’t expect this to be a concern for policymakers.
After all, following the last gathering, Governor Olsen noted that the key policy rate will most likely remain at current levels in the period ahead. As such, we don’t expect a minor decline in the CPI rate to alter the Bank’s plans.
In fact, a minor decline in the headline CPI rate, combined with Norway’s very tight labor market may be a relatively welcome development for policymakers, as it would likely lead to higher real incomes for consumers, in our view.
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Original Source: FXGiants News