September 28, 2020

IronFX, Who will win? Trump vs Biden Debate on the issues

Trump vs Biden Debate on the issues. The possible subjects to be discussed.

Who-will-win-Trump-vs-Biden-Debate-on-the-issues Who-will-win-Trump-vs-Biden-Debate-on-the-issues

This article is originally referred from IronFX Market Report.

Debates to rock the show: Trump VS Biden

This week the US presidential debate stage kicks off, once more keeping market participants in a state of intense enthusiasm and in a very different state of mind than the usual.

Media headlines and reports along with increased viewership are expected to rise substantially in the following days with citizens being very interested in who has an edge and who doesn’t, among the two candidates.

Even though Donald Trump and Joe Biden are expected to cross swords and try to damage each other’s reputation, the importance of the event in our view, will bring the best out of the two candidates as we get closer to the elections.

The presidential elections debate has traditionally been of great interest internationally as it can provide critical information on the views of each candidate.

Through this report, we aim to investigate the most crucial subjects that may be talked about during the debate.

What’s happening? US Presidential Elections and Supreme Court

This week the US presidential debate stage kicks off

Above all subjects, we place the one that is in the spotlight currently enjoying media attention globally.

Of course, this is the Covid-19 outbreak in the US and the Trump administration’s response so far.

First, this can be used from Joe Biden’s side as a way to draw first blood.

The matter was used by Democrats in the past months as they heavily criticized Trump and his administration’s response to the pandemic, with individuals going even further to state that President Donald Trump “intentionally misled the American public on every aspect of the pandemic” causing needless deaths and job losses.

However, this could be Trump’s opportunity to talk about the measures implemented by his administration’s side and how his measures have saved lives and jobs simultaneously.

We would expect that the specific matter could put Trump’s back against the wall, yet his debating skills provide enough evidence that he could turn this matter around and use it to his advantage by using the following matter as a shield.

Trump could swing back with the swift recovery of jobs created in the past months, the large fiscal stimulus packages employed by the government and the V-shaped recovery the major US stock markets had performed after their initial large decline.

We expect unemployment to be a great subject of debate and the two sides will have to go round for round on the matter supporting their position.

On the other hand, the economic impact suffered from the virus and the government’s response introducing fiscal stimulus packages to cover for losses.

The most important negative economic impacts for the US economy were the unemployment rate reaching -14.7% and the fact that mostly small and medium businesses had been impacted severely.

These are some points that may be used by Biden to put further negative attention on his adversary.

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The possible subjects to be discussed

Moreover, police enforcement and racial violence is also a matter expected to provide the fire to keep the debate intense.

The issue has been constantly in the epicenter of the media headlines for months and recently the matter has escalated to the worse with riots and violence rising substantially.

Donald Trump has confirmed in the past that he supports law and order as he considers it crucial for the wellbeing and protection of both the society and police officers.

The US president opposes the black lives matter movement, as he stated that they support hatred and violence against the police.

Conversely, Joe Biden supports the view that the group covers the belief of a huge amount of people from various backgrounds and origin, supporting the idea that some police departments have committed crimes of racial violence.

We believe that the specific subject does not relate only to the two candidates to debate upon but it has also reached a major level of influence dividing people in the US.

Is the police’s work easy in the US and specifically in some high crime rate states?

Has the police gone too far with its tactics and should new laws be brought forward to keep citizens safe?

What are the next steps to control gun trafficking in the US?

In our opinion, the answer to these questions will be very important for voters and political analysts to form opinions on who is the most suitable candidate to be in the White House.

Moving to our last choice as a major subject to be debated upon is foreign policy.

Most of the political scene in the US is in favor of reducing Chinese business and dependence in the US.

In fact, most of the politicians support the idea that China should give back to the US for various reasons.

First, the large contribution the US has to the global economy and the wrongful treatment the US businesses have faced in China as per intellectual property matters in the past years require compensation.

The Trump administration has been very aggressive towards China in the past years with the president bringing forth the Phase one deal.

However, the deal that has not been carried out as agreed upon due to the virus outbreak.

Yet, Joe Biden believes that the Trump administration has created barriers with some of the biggest allies of the US.

He has said he is willing to go against China, with a different approach however Biden could be in favor of a more aggressive stance towards the Chinese.

Their views on foreign policy could attract interest from all around the world as their future actions could impact global relationships with risk and opportunities rising correspondingly.

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Characteristics and opinions of the two candidates

In addition, another important factor that people will be interested in, is who of the two presidential candidates has the best communication skills.

We have seen Donald Trump show a variety of skills during the 2016 election when he outtalked some of the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries using various methods.

He later used similar tactics against Hilary Clinton making a big impression.

Trump speaks clearly and has been known to indirectly insult people if needed.

In general, one of Trump’s main advantages is that nobody expects what and how he will say things which gives him the spotlight in most cases.

On the contrary, Joe Biden has some difficulty in clearly stating his opinions as he sometimes loses his words.

In the past, we have seen him having to make pauses to regain his momentum.

Yet, he has a very different approach than Trump’s aggressive talking which can be translated into a more relaxed and empathetic personality.

Previously, he has been very successful in using empathy to gain attention.

Overall we believe that both candidates have the intensity to use unkind comments on another.

Nevertheless, if the conversation turns into a trash talk, Trump has the advantage as being a loose lip.

At an impression level, the game and the overall performance of Joe Biden may confirm or overturn the argumentation that he is at a rather old age to govern the country.

What’s happening? US Presidential Elections and Supreme Court

Market volatility in focus

On a separate note, as the event is expected to attract international attention we would expect traders be placing orders along the way.

Even though it would be very difficult to predict the reaction of the markets during the debate or even more precisely during the poll announcements, we would expect volatility to rise significantly upon the event.

Our personal opinion, is that the market could jump or drop at specific timeframes only to correct back after the volatility returns to normal levels.

We would advise caution when trading upon the event as headlines could be misinterpreted and market reaction may be abnormal in certain circumstances.

USD currency pairs, major US stock markets, Gold and Silver are among the instruments that may display substantial sensitivity to the matter and again traders should be very cautious in all circumstances.

In our view, the sentiment created in the US session could be passed over to the Australian, Asian and European session with traders trying to take advantage upon the opening and closing.

A final note, we also see the debate acting as a compass for the market’s reaction for the days to come, due to the fact it could produce decisive signals for the outcome of the elections.

Original Source: IronFX Market Report

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