K Supreme Court decision, key data in focus

Next week’s market movers

• In the UK, the Supreme Court will rule on whether Parliament should have a say in triggering Article 50. The outcome could determine sterling’s near-term direction.
• Australia’s CPI for Q4 is expected to have accelerated, which could diminish further the probability for the RBA to ease again in the months to come.
• We get CPI data for Q4 from New Zealand as well. We believe that a strong print could deter the RBNZ from introducing any more stimulus in the foreseeable future.
• We also get key economic data from Eurozone, the UK, Japan, and the US.

Monday is a relatively quiet day, with no major events on the economic agenda or indicators due to be released. Market participants are likely to still be digesting any signals from incoming US President Trump’s inauguration speech regarding the US government’s fiscal and regulatory policies.

On Tuesday, the UK Supreme Court will announce its decision on whether Parliament should have a say in triggering the official process for leaving the EU, Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. The outcome is likely to dictate the pound’s short-term direction. Given that Parliament is seen as favoring a “soft Brexit”, if the Court decides that lawmakers should be involved with the Brexit process, we could see another relief rally in GBP. On the other hand, if the Court rules that the government can act unilaterally, GBP could erase the gains it posted following Theresa May’s Brexit speech, as the scenario of a “hard Brexit” becomes increasingly more likely…

Find out more in the below PDF.

Weekly_Market_Outlook_FXG_Jan 23rd-27th