The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate will be released Friday, October 5, 2018, at 13:30 UK Time.

It is expected to cause significant volatility in the markets.

An economic indicator that tends to trigger sharp market movements in the minutes leading up to its release and afterwards, the NFP is usually released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the first Friday of each month, outlining changes in the number of employees, excluding farm workers and those employed by the government, non-profit organisations and private households.

What to expect this month:

Nonfarm Payrolls: 158K Consensus; 201K Previous
U.S. Unemployment Rate: 3.8% Consensus; 3.9% Previous

The consensus forecast for September’s Nonfarm Payrolls estimates that the U.S economy generated 185K jobs – a slightly lower number than last month, when the increase exceeded expectations and amounted to 201K.

The current employment growth rate is driving the unemployment rate down to multi-year lows.

The U.S. Labour market preserves its strength and analysts speculate on whether U.S. could stick with such a pace.

The markets will also keep a close eye on the average hourly earning figure, which came in at 2.9% YoY in August, marking the highest rate since 2009.

Forecasts expect the rate for September to be at 2.8% YoY, however the release of higher data could reinforce expectations for further Fed rate hikes.

A weak NFP figure release below 150K coupled with an Unemployment Rate above 3.8% will likely trigger a downward pressure on the USD.

A strong NFP figure release above 250K coupled with Unemployment Rate below 3.8% will likely cause the USD to strengthen.

As always, it is important to note that any alteration from the previous month’s figure (201K) will significantly impact the market sentiment.

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