Drums of war sound louder

  1. Russia announced yesterday, that it will hit any missile trying to hit Syrian ground and target it’s source as well.
  2. President Trump twitted in response that Russia should get ready because the missiles will be coming and they are new and smart.
  3. Theresa May seems also to be about to get Cabinet approval today, for the UK to participate in a possible conflict.
  4. No timetable seems to be laid out however clouds of war seem to be drawing near.
  5. Gold and oil gain as they seem to be feeding on the news. Any further escalation could push prices higher.

All of Fed’s policymakers saw a strengthening economy

  1. All participants in the latest FOMC meeting, seem to agree that the US economy outlook is stronger than previously anticipated and that inflation (yoy) will most probably reach the 2% target.
  2. Also, all agreed on gradual rate hikes and a strong majority considers trade retaliation acts as a downside risk.
  3. The minutes definitely have hawkish elements in them however do not clearly provide signals for a 4 rate hike path.
  4. Overall, we could see the US Dollar strengthening in the long run, as the arguments for a more hawkish stance prevail. Especially considering that the possibility for a possible trade war could be lower.

Today’s other economic highlights

  • France: Final CPI (EU Norm.) rate for March, Survey: +1.7% yoy Prior: +1.7% yoy, 06:45 GMT, could be positive for EUR
  • Sweden: CPI rate for March, Survey: +2.0% yoy Prior:+1.6% yoy, 07:30 GMT, could support the SEK
  • Eurozone: Industrial Production for February, Survey:+0.1% mom Prior:-1.0% mom, 09:00 GMT, could support EUR
  • ECB’s meeting minutes are published,11:30 GMT
  • US: Initial Jobless Claims, Survey: 230K Prior: 242K, 11:20 GMT, could support the USD
  • OPEC Monthly report, 11:20 GMT
  • Speakers: ECB member Coeure (12:15 GMT), BuBa President Weidman (16:15 GMT) and BoE governor Carney (19:00, GMT) speak.

Daily Market Report – April 12th



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