UK government to trigger Brexit process, key data in focus.

Next week’s market movers…

  • In the UK, the Brexit journey will officially begin. PM May is expected to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which will set the stage for two years of negotiations.
  • In Euro area, preliminary inflation data for March will be closely followed amid mounting speculation regarding whether and when the ECB could begin to reduce its stimulus dose.
  • From the US, we get the core PCE price index for February, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure. It could have a notable impact on market expectations regarding the timing of the next hike.
  • We also get key economic data from Germany, the US, the UK, and Japan.

On Monday, we get Germany’s Ifo survey for March. The forecast is for the expectations index to have risen somewhat, while the current conditions figure is expected to have ticked down. We see the risks surrounding the current conditions forecast as skewed to the upside, perhaps for an increase instead of a marginal fall. We base our view on the ZEW and PMI surveys for the month, both of which showed increased optimism in the German economy. In fact, the PMIs indicated that the German economy is growing at its strongest pace for nearly six years, something that could also be reflected in the Ifo survey.

On Tuesday, the economic calendar is light, with no major events or indicators due to be released.

On Wednesday, the main event will be in the UK, where PM May is expected to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and commence the formal process for leaving the EU. We do not expect the actual triggering to be a particularly big market mover for sterling, as the move and timing have been signaled repeatedly over the past months and weeks…

Read the FXGiants’s Full Market Analysis from below!

FXGiants Weekly Financial Market Report for March 27th – 31st



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