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July 17, 2018

IronFX, WTI Crude Oil Market Outlook - US and Russia could work towards regulating Oil prices

If Trump and Putin are serious about working together to keep prices stable, it is clear that the two countries are now on a different relationship level and are seeing each other as a business partner.

This article is originally referred from IronFX News.

During the Trump Putin meeting, yesterday WTI dropped to $68 per barrel as the two presidents were asked to comment on Oil and natural Gas developments.

It must be noted that, the two countries support very opposite views on the matter as the past has shown.

Russia has created very good relationships with OPEC as their agreement on cutting Oil production has been implemented perfectly, so far.

OPEC’s and Russia’s clear and precise goal was to increase the commodities price and at the same time stabilize prices by dropping production.

This objective has been reached and compliance with the agreement surpassed 100% leading prices to 3-year highs for the black gold.

On the other hand, the US, which president Donald Trump claimed to be the largest Oil and Gas producer in the world currently, has shown dislike on high Oil prices stating that the commodities value is over inflated.

In our opinion, it could be very hard for the two countries to collaborate on an Oil or Gas project because they have openly stated that the see each other as competitors.

Competition could be great for the Oil market as it enables purchasers with many options and keeping in mind geopolitical issues, this fact can help global oil demand and supply matters.

The fact remains that President Putin stated that US and Russia could work towards regulating Oil prices. He added that, no country would benefit if prices plunged, as it would make it unbearable to produce.

He also clarified that very high prices could hurt demand and supply and so a medium price could be the most appropriate for global coverage.

Moreover, prior to the meeting on Friday, reports stated that the Trump administration was contemplating a release of oil supply from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in an attempt to boost the market with fresh Oil reserves.

At the same time, the US president has urged other countries to increase output.

Following up on the Iranian sanctions, the United States is considering allowances for countries that need more time to adjust in order to, reduce imports from Tehran.

According to analysts, these so-called waivers are the reason Oil prices dropped approximately $5 since 11 July.

India has significantly reduce imports from Iran but is forced to continue purchasing due to its large consuming pace of petrol.

China, which statistically accounts for the largest single Iranian oil importer may choose to continue its purchases, as a trade war retaliation or because of its increasing demand for the commodity.

Then again, South Korea and Japan, have said they would discontinue imports unless they obtain a U.S. waiver.

Whatever the case, the US harsh stance towards Iran remains and according to Donald Trump 50 countries have withdrawn their business since the US announced a disapproval of the 2015 nuclear agreement.

In Iraq, demonstrations are taking place very close to the giant Zubair oilfield near Basra.

The oil field, which produced 475,000 barrels per day in June, seems to be a target for the protesters, which acknowledge its significance to the Oil market.

Authorities stated that they have strict orders not to loose on oil production, no matter what the case.

At the moment police has managed to keep protesters from entering or creating damages.

However, if supply is disrupted in Iraq, oil prices will most probably could be affected, as Iraq remains the second largest oil producer in OPEC.

In addition and according to EIA, shale Oil production is expected to rise to 7.5 million barrels per day in August.

This forecast was based on 164 new drilled but uncompleted wells at the Permian basin in North America.

These unfinished drills can easily be completed when Oil prices rise or support infrastructure is available.

As a conclusion, if Trump and Putin are serious about working together to keep prices stable, it is clear that the two countries are now on a different relationship level and are seeing each other as a business partner.

It could be a new page in history for the two countries, as they have vowed to meet again soon.

Crude Oil 4 Hour chart

It must be noted that in 7 days, Crude Oil has dropped from our previous $74.50 resistance level down near the current $68.10 support level, breaking all 3 of our previous support barriers.

If the commodity is overtaken by a bullish movement, it could move up towards the $70.19 (R1) resistance level and break it, moving further near the $71.65 (R2) resistance barrier.

If for any reason, the API weekly crude Oil stocks reading releases a surplus today, Crude Oil could enter a bearish movement and could move downwards towards the $66.58 (S2) Support level.

Please be aware of the OPEC meeting taking place on Friday 20th of July as it could provide further turbulence for Oil prices on any new developments on supply matters.

Since Oil has lost value in the past week, the meeting could provide comments that will provide support for Oil prices due to the fact that OPEC considers prices around $70 per barrel more desirable.

Original Source: IronFX News

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