July 8, 2016

FxPro analysis on "June NFP"

FxPro Trading Desk Alerts regarding to the “NFP” in June.

Today 8th of July at 12:30 in GMT, The US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate will be out and it is expected to have significant impact to financial market. It is  the one economic indicator that never fails to trigger sharp market movements both in the minutes leading up to its release and in its aftermath.

The NFP data is released by the US Department of Labor on the first Friday of each month and outlines changes in the number of employees, excluding farm workers and those employed by the government, non-profit organisations and private households.

From FxPro Economists

Here is the comment on the NFP release on June from the economists of FxPro:

The US labour market has been the strong point in the recovery. If we were just looking at that, then interest rates would have been increased much earlier. The question this month is whether the economy is now running out of momentum. The 25k increase in payrolls last month was the lowest for 6 years, but was this a one-off? Another disappointing figure could well mean no further Fed tightening this year.

What you need to be aware of

FxPro is also kind enough to introduce some “Key Points” of NFP. If you sign up with FxPro, you can even find these analysis from FxPro News letter.

  • During the NFP announcement, you may expect high volatility, especially across USD cross currency pairs
  • As Market sentiment can really affect currency movements than traders normally expect from the report has as much impact as the actual released data, if not greater
  • A higher figure than the one registered during the previous month signifies an improvement in employment numbers. This, as well as the release of a higher-than-expected figure, mean an increase in the number of jobs created and are positive for both the US economy and the dollar
  • A lower figure than the one registered during the previous month, as well as a lower-than-expected figure, usually have a negative impact on the dollar as they demonstrate a drop in employment numbers
  • Remember that the sudden spike observed across the charts of many currency pairs upon the release of the NFPs is usually followed by a period during which the market tries to recover and return to its initial price levels

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