BoJ & Riksbank policy meetings, key data in focus

Next week’s market movers

• In Japan, the BoJ is likely to stand pat amid relatively optimistic data, as well as a weaker JPY.
• In Sweden, the Riksbank may take the sidelines as well, though continued undershooting in inflation may prompt a policy response in the foreseeable future.
• We also get key economic data from Germany, New Zealand, the US, the UK and Canada.

On Monday

Germany’s Ifo survey for December will be released. The forecast is for both the current conditions and the expectations indices to have risen, albeit slightly.

We see the risks surrounding the current conditions forecast as skewed to the upside, considering the unexpected surge in the current assessment index of the ZEW survey as well as the upbeat German composite PMI survey.

Importantly, the PMI showed that German companies raised their prices at the sharpest rate since 2011, as the weaker euro placed upward pressure on import costs.

This was already evident in November’s Ifo report, which showed that an increased number of companies intended to raise their prices in the near future.

Should December’s Ifo survey show that businesses continue to expect prices to rise, this would be encouraging news for the ECB, as it could confirm that the Bank’s prior easing measures are working as intended with regards to lifting inflationary pressures.

On Tuesday…

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Weekly Market Outlook by FXGiants