RBA Interest Rate Decision

• On Tuesday in the Asian session (04:30, GMT), we get RBA’s interest rate decision and it is expected to remain on hold at +1.50%.
• Currently AUS OIS imply a probability for the bank to remain on hold at 99.59%.
• Market focus could shift to the accompanying statement and comments regarding GDP, inflation, world trading conditions and household spending could gain the market’s attention.
• Should there be a neutral to dovish tone in the accompanying statement we could see the AUD weakening.

Leftist candidate wins Mexican presidential elections

• According to media, exit polls show that leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) won Mexico’s elections yesterday.
• AMLO could move Mexico to a nationalistic and social direction as he promised to reduce economic dependence from the US.
• The new government will inherit the NAFTA negotiations and some quite tense relationships with the US.
• Should there be further headlines about the intentions of the new president volatility may arise on MXN.

In today’s other economic highlights:

In today’s European session, we get Germany’s, France’s and Eurozone’s final manufacturing PMIs for June, UK’s manufacturing PMI for June, and Eurozone’s unemployment rate for May.

In the American session we get the US ISM manufacturing PMI for June.

As for speakers, please be advised that ECB’s Peter Praet speaks.

Also please bear in mind that Bitcoin opened with a positive gap, since Friday and is now trading above the 6000 USD psychological level.

As for the rest of the week

On Tuesday, from Sweden we get Riksbank’s interest rate decision. On Wednesday, we get Australia’s Retail Sales for May and UK’s Services sector PMI for June.

On Thursday, we get the US ISM Non-Mfg PMI for June as well as the FOMC meeting minutes.

On Friday, we get the US Employment report with the NFP figure and Canada’s employment data, both for June.

IronFX Daily Report ‘July 2nd’