What to expect from this month’s NFP report? -July 6th, Friday-

US employment report for June, will be released on Friday at 12:30 (GMT) and is expected to cause increased volatility to USD crosses.

Non-Farm Payrolls figure:	Expected 195k, previous figure 223k
Unemployment rate:	Expected at 3.8%, previous reading 3.8%
Average Earnings growth rate:	Expected at +2.8% on a year on year basis, previous respective reading 2.7%

Overall, if the forecasts are realized we see the case for a rather strong employment report that could support the USD ,showing a tightening market as NFP figure remains at tolerable levels, unemployment rate remains at the lowest levels for past 3 years and Av. Earnings accelerate.

Market consensus for this week’s June Nonfarm Payrolls is forecast to show that the U.S. economy added 200K jobs – a lower number than last month’s “better than expected” figure of 223K.

The Labour market in the U.S. remains strong, but analysts expect some corrections to May’s strong figures.

The markets will also be closely watching the annualized average hourly earnings figure, which came in at 2.7% in May, with many forecasts calling for June’s release to come in stronger at 2.8%.

Such positive data will underscore the strength of the U.S. economy.

If we see a significantly bad NFP release of < 150K, coupled with an Unemployment Rate > 3.8%, the markets will most likely see USD come under downward pressure.

A strong NFP release of > 250K, with the Unemployment Rate below 3.8%, will likely result in USD strengthening.