September 5, 2018

IronFX, WTI Crude Oil Market Outlook - Saudi Arabia’s long-term plan for Aramco IPO

Crude Oil was on an upsurge during Tuesday as the storm hit the Mexican Gulf, however corrected lower during the US session as fears eased.

This article is originally referred from IronFX News.

According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia has set a target to keep oil prices between $70 – $80 USD.

Various sources stated that Oil prices could affect how Saudi Aramco IPO is played out and so the target price is set high in order to maximize gains when the Giant Oil Company goes public.

For exactly this reason analysts claimed that Saudi Arabia has been releasing false signals in order to manipulate prices fundamentally and keep the commodity at the desired price range.

The kingdom, the main ruler under the OPEC group has claimed previously that it will increase supply amid fears of huge global demand.

However, an increase in supply was never confirmed.

On the other hand, some signals of decreased supply have been communicated to the market by the Saudis, attributing this stock decline to Venezuela’s economic crisis or even tension in the Red sea with Iran.

Market observers are now saying further excuses may be called by Saudi Arabia in order to control stocks and eventually boost prices in the desired price range.

However, Saudi Arabia’s main concern remains Aramco’s IPO scheduled for 2019.

In the US, tropical storm Gordon is the center of attention at the moment affecting the Oil market.

Oil producers were forced to stop their employees from their jobs as the storm passes through the Gulf of Mexico which is home of many petrol related firms.

It was stated from various sources that 54 offshore platforms had held back from producing and that approximately 160K barrels were cut from production.

It must be noted that the US firms operating in the Mexican Gulf are responsible for 17 percent of total U.S. oil production.

The storm has been labeled as a category 1 hurricane which is considered very dangerous but is the most mild of storm power and fears of further production cuts have eased somewhat.

Moreover from the US, an outpouring in oil and gas production coming from the Permian basin of west Texas and New Mexico has exceeded transport capacity, pushing the local price of oil to four-year lows.

The chief executive of the largest oilfield service provider, Schlumberger, stated that this huge increase in oil production has the potential of reducing production growth, prices and investment levels in the future.

Adding to that, it was noted that US shale oil producers delay completing wells until oil prices climb and more gains are retrieved from projects.

From Latin Americas Venezuela, Oil supply to the US was confirmed dropping during the previous month as the country continues to struggle with various inner issues.

It was said that the reduced supply figure came as a consequence of a minor tanker collision which forced activity to be temporarily discontinued at a main oil port, Jose.

Venezuela is currently at a stage trying to overcome declining output, due to a shortfall of investment in its energy infrastructure and asset confiscation by unhappy creditors but also Oil smuggling matters.

However Venezuelan merchants indicated smuggling will carry on because there is no other way to make a living, putting additional emphasis on the country’s harsh living conditions.

Mexico’s next government President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador stated recently that they plan to construct what could be the country’s largest oil refinery, with the plan set to begin next year.

The president emphasized the fact that his country would like to move further in the gasoline production industry because they have the raw material, crude oil.

Oil prices could be seen stabilizing around the price of $70 per barrel as we move further into autumn and the weather changes.

Yet the unresolved geopolitical issues the US has pending with many countries around the globe could significantly change the Oil market.

Countries that are seemingly allies to the US may choose to operate in freewill.

Crude Oil 4 hour chart

Crude Oil was on an upsurge during Tuesday as the storm hit the Mexican Gulf, however corrected lower during the US session as fears eased.

Crude oil has been moving in a bullish sentiment since the 15th of August, however has broken this upward trend line with its recent correction yesterday.

It could be an indication of a change in trend but also, the correction could have generated a stronger reaction than expected because of the API weekly reading being moved from Tuesday to Wednesday due to the Labor Day in the US.

If any evidence of over supply is released within the news, we may see a bearish sentiment overtake the commodity.

In this case, Crude Oil could break the $68.75 (S1) support level and move even lower towards the $67.75 (S2) support barrier.

If the bulls are reenacted in the the Crude Oil market we could see it breaking the $69.61 (R1) resistance level and move even higher towards the $70.40 (R2) resistance area.

This scenario could be most probable if the API weekly figure is released with a drawdown, later today.

Original Source: IronFX News

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