Further stabilization on Korean peninsula ahead

• The Kim-Trump meeting was completed yesterday with both parties signing a joint document.
• According to media, the joint document included “security guarantees” for N.Korea from the US president and the US may stop joint military exercises with S. Korea.
• On the other hand, N. Korea pledged unwavering commitment to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula among other points.
• Sanctions against N.Korea are to remain in place and the denuclearization process is to start “very,very quickly “ as per Pres. Trump.
• Should there be further positive headlines about the issue we could see the USD strengthening while safe havens could weaken.

All eyes on the FOMC

• The FOMC is going to announce it’s interest rate decision today at 18:00 (GMT) and is widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points reaching +2.00% and Fed’s Funds Futures imply a probability for the FOMC to hike rates by 87%.
• Hence, market focus could shift to the accompanying statement and the dot plot for further clues about future rate hikes.
• We see the case for the bank to have a neutral to hawkish accompanying statement as the US economy had favorable financial releases recently.
• Also, should the Fed’s forecasts alter, based on the recent acceleration of the inflation rate and the favorable employment report, we could see the dot plot implying a four rate hike path in 2018.
• Overall, the greenback could strengthen from the interest rate decision and the following press conference.

Today’s other economic highlights

1. UK: Core CPI rate for May, Survey: +2.1% yoy Prior: +2.1% yoy, 08:30 (GMT), could weaken GBP
2. UK: CPI rate for May, Survey: +2.5% yoy Prior: +2.4% yoy, 08:30 (GMT), could support GBP
3. UK: PPI input prices for May, Survey: +1.6% mom Prior: +0.4% mom, 08:30 (GMT), could support GBP
4. Eurozone: Industrial Production for April, Survey: -0.5% mom Prior: +0.5% mom, 09:00 (GMT), could weaken EUR
5. US: PPI for May, Survey: +0.3% mom Prior: +0.1% mom, 12:30 (GMT), could strengthen USD
6. US: EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks, Survey: -2.744m Prior: +2.072m, 14:00 (GMT), Could support Oil Prices