FXGiants, What to Expect on French Elections Round 1? Frexit? EURO sinking?
FXGiants continues to provide full Market Analysis!
This article is originally referred from FXGiants SNS.
Today’s Highlights | 21.04.2017
French elections: Round 1
- On Sunday, French people are called to elect their President. According to the polls, no candidate gathers majority, so a second round is scheduled on the 7th of May.
- Given the latest increase in support for Melenchon (EU-sceptic), a run-off between him and Le Pen seems to be the biggest risk scenario. EUR could sink.
- General risk-off market response.
- The other side of the coin: Macron-Fillon. EUR could strengthen. General risk-on as the risk for any “Frexit” referendum is eliminated.
- Polls: Most likely outcome: Macron-Le Pen. EUR to rebound, some risk appetite. Macron is seen as winning the second round. (Generally, Macron is seen as winning any of the others in the run-off).
- In the unlikely scenario of Macron being kicked out, the only combination that could be seen as somewhat EUR-positive is Fillon- Le Pen (Fillon favorite). In a Fillon-Melenchon comb. (Mel. favorite).
- Of course, much will depend on who comes first in these combs. and by what margin.
- Best proxy EUR/JPY. Could fall sharply in risk off. Could rebound more than others in risk appetite.
FXGiants provides all traders with full analysis of financial every day and specially for French Election!
Signup for Free now! and stay updated!
Original Source: FXGiants SNS
